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Glossary

Cost curve

The cost curve ranks fertiliser producers by ascending cost; the last producer called upon sets the marginal market price.

Cost curve · Swing producer

The cost curve orders production capacities according to their rising costs, from the most competitive to the highest. It illustrates the hierarchy of producers based on their advantages in feedstocks or scale. The last producer required to meet demand — the marginal producer — sets the floor price; beyond that point, upstream units earn a margin.

For prilled urea, the regions providing swing output have shifted over the years, moving from the US Gulf to Ukraine, then to China[1]. Between 2004 and 2013, the average demand-driven margin stood at roughly 70 USD/t[1]. On the old continent, the nitrogen industry sits in the least competitive portion of the global curve: a spike in gas prices can render plants loss-making and trigger curtailments[2].

Sources

  1. Yara, Fertilizer Industry Handbook 2025, p. 90 · View the source
  2. IFA, Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2026-2030, p. 3 · View the source

Original text by fertiliser-market.com. Facts and figures are taken from the documents cited, at the page given; no text, table or chart is reproduced from them.

Updated October 27, 2026

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