China

China stands as the world's largest market and production base for fertiliser, covering both nitrogenous products and compound engrais-npk. In 2020, the country absorbed 23.7 Mt of nitrogen, 11.4 Mt of P₂O₅ and 10.3 Mt of K₂O, making it the foremost geographical consumer of fertiliser^[1]. This colossal demand stems from intensive cultivation of rice, wheat and maize. The nation also ranks as the leading global producer of rice and second in maize behind the United States^[2].

Production and industrial capacity

China's ammonia industry holds the top worldwide position, with 53.5 Mt manufactured in 2021 out of a planetary total of 185 Mt^[3]. This standing gives China a pivotal role throughout the nitrogen chain, from ammoniac to downstream products such as urée, nitrate-d-ammonium and solution-azotee-uan. Furthermore, China commands 47.1 Mt of compound NPK fertiliser capacity, well ahead of Russia (6.8 Mt) and Indonesia (6.2 Mt)^[4]. This industrial concentration arises from the aim of satisfying enormous home demand rather than pursuing an export-oriented strategy.

Domestic market and trade policy

Fertilisers containing potash face export duties, which severely curbs overseas sales of compound NPK^[4]. This policy confines the bulk of output to the internal market. In the urea segment, China acted as a marginal producer (swing producer) between 2014 and 2021: when global prices fell below its breakeven threshold, exported volumes dropped markedly, as seen in 2017^[5]. Since 2021, export restrictions have been introduced, shrinking available supply on international markets and contributing to price volatility^[6].

Agronomy and seasonality

Chinese cereal yields show pronounced variation by crop: 6.4 t/ha for wheat, 5.9 t/ha for maize, and 7.0 t/ha for rice, a level comparable to that of Vietnam^[7]. These gaps reflect differences in agronomic practices, soil quality and intensity of azote-nutrition-des-plantes. The seasonality of nutrient applications follows the sowing calendar: winter wheat receives its main dressing in spring, whilst single-crop rice and the two cycles of double-crop rice—early and late—pace the year^[8]. This multiplicity of cropping cycles generates near-continuous demand for fertiliser, unlike markets with more sharply defined seasonality.

Position in international markets

Over 2004-2013, the average demand-driven market margin stood at roughly USD 70/t^[5]. China, as marginal producer, long shaped the cost floor for urée. However, the combination of Chinese trade restrictions and exceptionally elevated gas costs in Europe during 2021-2022 triggered output cuts and global demand rationing^[5]. The decline in gas prices during 2023-2024 eased these constraints, without nonetheless restoring Chinese volumes to the export market.

Outlook and public policy

Support policies for agriculture and fertiliser use remain a key lever for Chinese demand through to 2030^[9]. China seeks to secure its food supply through greater self-sufficiency, notably in cereals. This orientation reinforces the priority accorded to the domestic market over exports, and justifies maintaining massive industrial capacity. The evolution of environmental policies, particularly regulation of nitrous oxide emissions protoxyde-d-azote-n2o and the shift towards ammoniac-vert-et-bleu, could alter the cost structure and competitiveness of Chinese production over the medium term.